The recent trade deadline has opened up a ton of value for a few rookies around the league, perhaps none more so than rookie guard Bub Carrington. The Washington Wizards dealt out usage drain Kyle Kuzma, and injury-prone veterans such as Malcolm Brogdon, Khris Middleton, and Marcus Smart will likely pose little threat to the youth movement currently underway in Washington.

 

 

While he remains a bit of an unknown commodity due to his age and lack of NBA experience, Carrington has been trending upwards in a strong way, putting together one of the most impactful stretches of the season in the last week. The path to prolonged value is wide open for anybody with any sort of potential in Washington, and Bub is proving to be a potential long-term piece for the rebuilding team. 
 

Setting the Pace

 
One thing that sticks out most when watching Bub play is his ability to control the speed of the game around him compared to most rookies. He rarely looks forced to do anything, nor does he try to make plays that are not there. While there is not an element of magic to his game that might elevate him to stardom, his ability to change the speed of the game as needed is a skill that makes him invaluable to the struggling Wizards.

 

The Wizards are currently dead last in offensive rating, and while they try to push the pace (4th in pace), their possessions led by players like Bilal Coulibaly and Jordan Poole often look aimless and isolation-based. 

 

Conversely, Bub is one of the most skilled floor generals on the team, often looking to create for those around him before defaulting to his own shot creation. It is no surprise that he is a top assist option for the team, putting up nearly as many assists as Poole while having less than half the usage. 

 

Since the trade deadline, Bub has started every game for the Wizards and has been a crucial piece in making the team look like they belong in the NBA (low standard, but there is only so much to work with). This shift has paid dividends to fantasy managers, with Bub putting up an average of 5 assists a night since the deadline.

 

This change propels him to be a clear positive in the category, and he is returning 4th round value to your assists in the four games he has played. While he will almost certainly be held back by a host of factors (limited usage and terrible teammates who cannot score efficiently, being the two most notable), he can definitely remain consistent in this category due to his high game IQ. 
 
Most impressive are the metrics that can measure his game sense. According to Crafted NBA, he already has a passer rating similar to that of Damian Lillard or Ja Morant (neither particularly known for passing, but still elite guards who run high-level offenses).

 

Carrington is more than capable of keeping hold of the ball as well and has an assist-to-turnover ratio of 2.6 (higher than lead guards such as Devin Booker, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, and Trae Young). In a Wizards team that almost seems like they don’t want possession (if their turnover numbers were anything to go off of), he fills an invaluable niche in their long-term plans. 

 

Self Creation Specialist

 
The most recent addition to his game has come in the form of his scoring, with the rookie entering a significant hot streak following the deadline. His high level of game sense bleeds into his shot selection, and he has a great ability to not force offense through himself. This results in him getting to his own spots and taking shots he should make (and is now making) with ease. 

 
His specialty has always been his midrange, with most draft scouting reports keying in on this particular skill of his. While his two-point percentage does not necessarily reflect this aspect of his game, it is clear that he is confident in navigating the pick and roll as needed. Some of his troubles can no doubt be drawn from the Wizard's lack of roll threats, which can exacerbate his own struggles finishing at the rim, but as a whole, he is exceedingly comfortable in a role as the primary ball handler. 

 
Since the deadline, Carrington has averaged 16 points a night on 56% shooting from the field. While there are a couple concerns about him being able to maintain this level of scoring (high efficiency and a naturally low usage role), this is clearly a step in the right direction for the rookie and could be indicative of a higher level of confidence from him following the All-Star Break. He is currently sitting at a neutral points value while correcting one of his biggest weaknesses (FG%) all the way up to a Z-Score of .55. 

 
Verdict

 
Carrington has received nothing but praise from those keyed in on his season so far. While he has not statistically been a nightly threat, his impact for the Wizards is undeniable. With the hardest part of the tank looming ahead, it stands to logic that he will be receiving as many developmental minutes as he can handle. The four games following the deadline highlight this fact, as injuries to veterans like Smart and Brogdon will likely persist long after the break, and Bub has been playing nearly 37 minutes a night in their absence. 

 

It has basically been a perfect storm for the young guard, with him receiving extended minutes to correlate with a boost to his shooting. This has allowed him to have one of his best fantasy runs of the season so far, being ranked 66th in category leagues following the deadline. While this projects to be roughly what we can expect of him at the peak of his powers, the minutes and role does look like it should remain secure more or less over the course of the season. 

 
Optimist that I am, I would consider Bub an add in nearly every standard format, with the expectation that he can remain an end-of-roster guy being pumped minutes and opportunity at the very worst case. The Wizards are angling to lose games whenever possible, and playing vet guards will go against that goal in nearly every instance.

 

It is clear that their older players have been sidelined all year, and even new arrivals like Smart seem to be welcoming of their role in developing the future of Washington (if the clips of him mentoring Poole are anything to go off of). As is the case with most young players, the hype around a potential breakout will always lead to people stashing them early, and it is important to make sure you get ahead of the curve when possible. 

 

While it is likely that he might have been scooped up in deeper leagues, he is still only rostered in 20% of Yahoo leagues, meaning that there is plenty of opportunity to grab him when available. A top 120 finish could be in the books for him, which is more than enough to justify a speculative add now.